January 2026 Edition

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Comments from Clint
            2025 was a difficult year for many in the agricultural community. Simple math reveals low 2025 corn and soybean yields multiplied by the third and worst consecutive year of low prices have many in the grain farm community experiencing negative net farm income for 2025. Everyone has less working capital available than they’ve had since the 80s.  While the optimism is for greater yields in 2026, there is no optimism for higher prices, and input costs are only expected to increase.  While grain crops are slumped due to large global supply and trade policy, the livestock sector, specifically cattle, provided tremendous price opportunity in 2025 and is expected to continue in 2026.  Tight domestic supply and strong consumer demand pushed beef prices higher, bringing pork and poultry up with it.                       

                From a grain price perspective, trade policy and record world production are the cause for the price volatility.  When I began my extension career 23 years ago, the United States grew more soybeans than Brazil and Argentina combined.  Today, Brazil alone grows more soybeans than the US, and they are continuously expanding acreage out of pasture and into soybeans.  USDA projects the US will account for a record low 24% of world soybean exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year.  Brazil is expected to accomplish a record high 60% of world soybean exports for the same period. China is by far the world’s largest consumer of all these soybeans.   When China stops buying US soybeans, South America easily meets the demand.  The result is lower US soybean prices, plain and simple.

Ag Expo

                Early last fall, the planning committee of the annual Ag Expo event made a difficult and appropriate decision to no longer host the Ag Expo.  This event has been held at the Owensboro Convention Center since 2014 and at numerous other locations around town since the first “Grain Day” was held at the Dugan Best Park Recreation Center in 1975.  Declining attendance and increasing costs justified the decision to reevaluate the program and its purpose. 

                The result is the Grain Day Legacy Series to be offered in January and February.  Three events will be held pertaining to crop disease, marketing, management, and soil fertility.  The series highlight will be January 28 at Blandford Lecture Hall in the Humanities Building at Owensboro Community & Technical College. On that day, Drs. Dave Kohl and Grant Gardner will present timely insights, including Dr. Kohl’s session, Business and Financial Tools for Turbulent Times. You attend the topics of most importance to you, or we would be happy to see you at all three. 

Grain Markets: A Year in Review & What Lies Ahead
By: Dr Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky Extension Economist

CORN 
Corn markets in 2025 remain weighed down by record production and large carryover supplies, keeping prices under pressure despite modest demand improvements. Ethanol use has flattened, feed demand is soft as cattle herd rebuilding remains slow, and exports, led by Mexico, are the strongest demand component but still not enough to meaningfully tighten the balance sheet. Prices have stabilized around $4.25/bu but remain historically low. 

Moving into 2026, corn prices are expected to stay relatively weak without a major shift in supply or demand. Acreage reductions will be necessary to rebalance the market, and exports will continue to play a critical role. Trade policy, including tariffs, negotiations, and geopolitical developments, remains the biggest risk factor. Longer-term opportunities like Sustainable Aviation Fuel may eventually add demand, though impacts remain uncertain. Seasonal marketing, early sales during spring strength, and use of storage to capture basis improvements will remain key strategies as the long-term outlook stays generally bearish unless exports improve or domestic demand expands. 

SOYBEANS 
Soybean prices in 2025 stabilized near $11.00/bu after two years of sharp declines, recovering from the $9.50 harvest low. Domestic crush expansion continues to support demand, but uncertain exports, particularly slow Chinese buying through November, have prevented stocks from tightening. While supply and demand resemble 2022, price behavior looks more like the 2018 trade-war downturn. 

Looking ahead to 2026, soybean prices are expected to follow traditional seasonal patterns, with moderate winter or early-spring rallies before falling ahead of harvest. If China maintains steady purchases, average prices around $11.25/bu are possible, though volatility will remain high. Crush capacity will keep expanding through 2030 and will tighten stocks over the long term but crush alone is unlikely to trigger major price rallies. Export performance will remain the deciding factor. Marketing early and using storage to capture basis appreciation will again be important as short-term price behavior remains highly sensitive to trade developments and global weather. 

WHEAT 
U.S. wheat production increased again in 2025, led by strong Hard Red Winter yields. Prices have improved since late summer, though it is unclear whether the true market bottom has been established. Kentucky’s season-average price likely landed near $4.75/bu. Domestic food and seed use remain flat, and the projected increase in feed use may be overstated given ongoing cattle herd constraints. Weak financial conditions and limited planting incentives are expected to reduce double-crop wheat/soybean acreage in Kentucky. 

In 2026, wheat acreage nationwide is expected to remain limited, placing more weight on export performance. Tight global stocks and recent quality concerns in the EU and China may create export opportunities for the U.S., although Australia’s record crop provides additional competition. Geopolitical tensions in the Russia–Ukraine region could create volatility and short-term pricing opportunities. The 2026 average price is expected to be around $5.00/bu, with potential for higher marketing opportunities if acreage declines materialize. 

 Maximizing Success with Frost Seedings of Clover

An ideal time to overseed forage land with clover is late winter.  A few tips to ensure you have the best chance of getting clover established from a frost-seeding are to address soil fertility needs. Get a current soil test and apply the needed nutrients. Clover needs soil that is pH 6.5 to 7 and medium or better in P and K. Select a good variety. Choose an improved variety with known performance and genetics. UK recommends 6 to 8 pounds of red and 1 to 2 pounds of white/ladino clover per acre. Apply higher rates if using only one clover type.  Make sure seed lands on bare soil. The biggest cause of seeding failure with frost seedings is too much ground cover. Heavy cattle traffic or dragging with a chain harrow can accomplish this.  Control competition next spring. Do not apply additional nitrogen on overseeded fields next spring, and be prepared to do some timely mowing if grass or spring weeds get up above the clover.

KY Cattleman’s Convention

We are very excited that the Kentucky Cattleman's Convention will be held again this year at the Owensboro Convention Center on January 15 and 16. 

Advance registration is requested at https://keca.memberclicks.net/2026kcaconvention#/. 

There are several activities at the convention, including educational programs, membership meetings, and an industry trade show. 

Make plans to come out and support the event being held in Owensboro. 

Influence the Future of Kentucky Farming

Please join us for a meal, fellowship, and conversation about agriculture in the Green River region. We want to know which practices work best on your land, and how we can partner to enhance your operations and the region’s soil and water health. 

Which agricultural practices do you currently use? We're curious to know the challenges you face as a farmer or landowner. What concerns do you have with your waterways, including the Green River? Come ready to discuss, ask questions, or simply listen in. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and The Nature Conservancy want to know how we can partner with you for healthy soil and water in the Green River region. 

Please register at https://bit.ly/GreenRiverFarming or scan the QR code below to attend the three-hour session in Daviess County. Registration closes Friday, February 6, 2026. Participants will receive a $100 check by mail after the event. 

Making Profitable Management Decisions in 2026 Corn Fields
By: Chad Lee, University of Kentucky Corn Specialist, Director of Grain and Forage Center of Excellence

As we look ahead to the concerning economic outlook for 2026, some are asking what or where they can cut and still make excellent yields. The challenge for every farmer is to identify what adjustments can be made to production expenses without reducing yield potential.

Getting the fundamentals correct is critical every year, but especially when margins are tight. Farmers are very successful at managing the general production fundamentals, but fundamentals right on every acre is a challenge.

For corn in Kentucky, the fundamentals of yield include:

1. Choosing excellent genetics

2. Finished planting by May 10 with a planter in excellent condition

3. Adequate soil drainage and fertility, such as correct pH, N, P, K, and Zn

4. Excellent weed control for the entire growing season

5. Scouting and timely in-season fungicide and insecticide applications as needed

The University of Kentucky conducts corn hybrid trials every year. Unbiased tests like these are critical for selecting the best genetics for your farms. Corn is sensitive to a timely and uniform emergence. Highly functioning planters are critical to that success. A planter does not have to be brand new to be highly functioning. Take time during the winter to make sure your planter’s wear parts still meet the manufacturer’s specifications after all your acres are planted.

Excessive soil moisture in the spring can reduce yield before the field has even greened up. Sidewall compaction will reduce corn yields and the revenue stream. Water ponding will reduce corn yields and revenue stream. It is difficult to get landowners to invest in tile, but it can be justified. If you own land that still needs tile or needs retiling, you can either pay the cost to install it, or you pay the cost of lost revenue. It is a sure bet the cost of not having it is greater than the cost of installing over the 30-year useful life of the tile.

Soil pH needs to be in the 6.0 to 7.0 range. That cost cannot be avoided if it’s needed. UK recommends nitrogen rates from about 130 to 190 lb N/acre, depending on soil drainage classification and tillage type. Applying more of the nitrogen after corn emergence can help improve efficiency of the N fertilizer. If soil test phosphorus is at 60 lb/acre or above, no additional fertilizer is needed for corn. If soil test potassium is at 300 lb/acre or above, no additional fertilizer is needed for corn.

Weeds should not compete with the corn crop from emergence to nearly blacklayer in the field. If you rely on custom application services, plan ahead to ensure your crops are not kept waiting past critical weed size for optimum control and crop growth stage that could be at risk of injury. Keeping nearly all weeds controlled is critical to protecting the revenue stream.

Scout the corn for growth stage, disease, and insect threats and timely application of fungicides and/or insecticides. Applying either of these on a cornfield that does not need them is a wasted expense that does nothing to protect the revenue stream.

 
CPH60

The December CPH sale had the fewest number of animals consigned and sold since the sales were introduced to this area nearly 30 years ago.  Several reasons explain the low volume.  There are simply fewer people with cattle, and overall cow numbers are lower than ever in this area.  Fewer heifers are on feed out west compared to steers, meaning nationally more people are developing heifers to sell or keep as breeding stock.  The ultimate reason the numbers were low at the CPH60 sale is because prices are so high for weaned calves. Some ask why hold them longer after weaning? The answer is, because you will make more money!  The cost of feed is low, and the price for heavyweight steers and heifers is high.  Don’t let an additional $200-$250 net profit per animal slip by because you don’t want to grow them for a couple more months on the farm after weaning.

Daviess County Agricultural Visionaries Hall of Fame

Make plans to attend a reception for the 2026 Daviess County Agricultural Visionaries Hall of Fame inductees and their families.  This endeavor was initiated in 2023 with great success. 

                The committee is pleased to recognize Joe Elliott and Anthony Bittel, two people who have made significant contributions to local agriculture. 

                The reception will be Tuesday, January 27, from 5:30 to 6:30 p.m. in the Agricultural Hall of Fame gallery, third floor of the Owensboro Museum of Science and History. 

A Note of thanks

Our appreciation goes to Merritt Bates-Thomas and Katie Cecil Pedigo, who completed their terms on the Daviess County Extension District Board December 31.  The board members for 2026 are Judge Charlie Castlen, Ryan Trunnell, George Bittel, Dee Ann Conn, Jennifer Poole, Susan Zoglmann, and Jim Gilles III. 

Kentucky Ag Tag Program

Thank YOU, Daviess County farmers, for your support of the Ag Tag Program! Daviess County placed in the top 5 for contributions. These donations support 4-H, FFA, and Kentucky Proud programs, with portions coming back to the county to support the local 
4-H and FFA chapters. As we look to March for farm plate renewals, we ask that you remember to make your voluntary donations on each farm license plate you renew. That money goes directly to Kentucky 4-H, Kentucky FFA, and Kentucky Proud to support our agriculture community (and its future) here locally and across the Commonwealth. Think of the impact that could have on your community and its future leaders! 

Calendar of Events
January 15 Kentucky Commodity Conference, Bowling Green, KY 

January 15,16 Kentucky Cattleman’s Association Convention, Owensboro Convention Center 

January 21 Grain Day Legacy Series – Red Crown Rot Disease in Soybean, 9:00 a.m. Daviess County Extension Office (qualifies for Private Pesticide Applicator Certification) 

January 26 Private Pesticide Applicator Certification, 6:00 p.m. Daviess County Extension Office 

January 27 Daviess County Agricultural Hall of Fame Reception, 5:30-6:30 p.m. Owensboro Museum of Science and History 

January 28 Grain Day Legacy Series – Grain Market and Business and Financial Tools for Turbulent Times, 8:30 a.m. Owensboro Community College Humanities Building – Blandford Lecture Hall 

February 4 Grain Day Legacy Series – Fertility Management for Grain Crops, 8:30 a.m. Daviess County Extension Office 

February 11-14 National Farm Machinery Show, Louisville 

February 13 The Nature Conservancy Agricultural Soil and Water Input, 8:00 a.m. Daviess County Extension Office 

February 21 Farm City Breakfast, 7:30 a.m. Apollo High School 

February 24 Private Pesticide Applicator Certification, 8:30 a.m. Daviess County Extension Office 

February 26 Tobacco Production Meeting and GAP certification, 6:00 p.m. McLean County Extension Office 

March 31 Beef Quality Care and Assurance Chute-side training, 5:00 p.m. Kentuckiana Livestock Market